Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Akio KITOH  Masahiro HOSAKA  Yukimasa ADACHI  Kenji KAMIGUCHI 《大气科学进展》2005,22(4):467-478

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may be related with an E1 Nin^-o-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitation contrast more in the future.  相似文献   

Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM     

Masakazu Yoshimori  Masahiro Watanabe  Ayako Abe-Ouchi  Hideo Shiogama  Tomoo Ogura 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1613-1630

The finding that surface warming over the Arctic exceeds that over the rest of the world under global warming is a robust feature among general circulation models (GCMs). While various mechanisms have been proposed, quantifying their relative contributions is an important task in order to understand model behavior. Here we apply a recently proposed feedback analysis technique to an atmosphere–ocean GCM under two and four times CO₂ concentrations which approximately lead to seasonally and annually sea ice-free climates. The contribution of feedbacks to Arctic temperature change is investigated. The surface warming in the Arctic is contributed by albedo, water vapour and large-scale condensation feedbacks and reduced by the evaporative cooling feedback. The surface warming contrast between the Arctic and the global averages (AA) is maintained by albedo and evaporative cooling feedbacks. The latter contributes to AA predominantly by cooling the low latitudes more than the Arctic. Latent heat transport into the Arctic increases and hence evaporative cooling plus large-scale condensation feedback contributes positively to AA. On the other hand, dry-static energy transport into the Arctic decreases and hence dynamical heating feedback contributes negatively to AA. An important contribution is thus made via changes in hydrological cycle and not via the ‘dry’ heat transport process. A larger response near the surface than aloft in the Arctic is maintained by the albedo, water vapour, and dynamical heating feedbacks, in which the albedo and water vapour feedbacks contribute through warming the surface more than aloft, and the dynamical heating feedback contributes by cooling aloft more than the surface. In our experiments, ocean and sea ice dynamics play a secondary role. It is shown that a different level of CO₂ increase introduces a latitudinal and seasonal difference into the feedbacks.  相似文献   

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections     

Youichi Kamae  Masahiro Watanabe  Masahide Kimoto  Hideo Shiogama 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2553-2568

Land–sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land–sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land–sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950–2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO₂ increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land–sea contrast are examined in Part II.  相似文献   

Energy efficiency potentials for global climate change mitigation     

Masahiro Sugiyama  Osamu Akashi  Kenichi Wada  Amit Kanudia  Jun Li  John Weyant 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):397-411

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010–2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3–2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations’ “Sustainable Energy for All” initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution.  相似文献   

Hydrothermal alteration and K–Ar ages of Neogene‐Quaternary magmatic‐hydrothermal systems at Toyoha‐Muine area in southwest Hokkaido,Japan     

Toru SHIMIZU  Masahiro AOKI 《Resource Geology》2011,61(2):192-209

This paper presents a review of hydrothermal alteration and K–Ar age data from the Toyoha‐Muine area (TMA), where the Toyoha polymetallic (Ag–Pb–Zn–Cu–In) deposit is located near the Pliocene andesitic volcano that formed Mt Muine. Systematic prospect‐scale mapping, sampling, X‐ray analysis and microscopic observation show that hydrothermal alteration is divided into two groups: acid‐pH and neutral‐pH alteration types. The former is further divided into mineral assemblages I, II and III, while the latter into mineral assemblages IV and V. Different mineralogical features in five mineral assemblages are summarized as follows: (I) Quartz (silicified rock); (II) Pyrophyllite or dickite; (III) Kaolinite or halloysite ± alunite; (IV) Sericite or K‐feldspar; and (V) Interstratified minerals (illite/smectite and chlorite/smectite) and/or smectite. K–Ar radiometric ages determined on twenty‐eight K‐bearing samples (whole volcanic rocks and separated hydrothermal minerals) mainly fall into one of three periods: Early Miocene (24.6–21.4 Ma), Middle–Late Miocene (12.5–8.4 Ma) and Pliocene–Pleistocene (3.2–0 Ma). These three periods are characterized as follows. Early Miocene: A minor hydrothermal activity, which might be genetically related to the intermediate or felsic magmatic activities, formed mineral assemblage IV at 24.6 Ma in the northern part of the TMA. Middle to Late Miocene: The basaltic intrusion, andesitic eruption, and granodiorite intrusions induced hydrothermal activities between 12.5 and 8.4 Ma, resulting in the formation of a mineral assemblage IV with some base metal mineralization. Pliocene–Pleistocene: An andesitic eruption formed Mt Muine between 3.2 and 2.9 Ma. The andesitic activity was associated with acid‐pH mineral assemblages I, II and III locally around the volcano. Latent magmatic intrusions subsequent to the andesitic eruption generated hydrothermal activities that formed mineral assemblages IV and V between 1.9 and 0 Ma in the southern and southeastern parts of Toyoha deposit at depth, overprinting the Middle to Late Miocene alteration. The hydrothermal activities also formed mineral assemblages I, II and III along the Yunosawa fault (east of the Toyoha deposit) and assemblage III in the south and southeast of the Toyoha deposit near the surface.  相似文献   

Propagating tsunami wave and subsequent resonant response signals detected by HF radar in the Kii Channel,Japan     

Hirofumi Hinata  Satoshi Fujii  Keita Furukawa  Tomoya Kataoka  Masafumi Miyata  Takashi Kobayashi  Masahiro Mizutani  Takahiro Kokai  Nobuyoshi Kanatsu 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

Signals from the tsunami waves induced by the March 11, 2011 moment magnitude (M_w) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and from subsequent resonances were detected as radial velocity variability by a high-frequency ocean surface radar (HF radar) installed on the eastern coast of the Kii Channel, at a range of about 1000 km from the epicenter along the eastern to southern coasts of Honshu Island. A time–distance diagram of band-passed (9–200 min) radial velocity along the beam reveals that the tsunami waves propagated from the continental shelf slope to the inner channel as progressive waves for the first three waves, and then natural oscillations were excited by the waves; and that the direction of the tsunami wave propagation and the axis of the natural oscillations differed from that of the radar beam. In addition, spectral analyses of the radial velocities and sea surface heights obtained in the channel and on the continental shelf slope suggest complex natural oscillation modes excited by the tsunami waves.  相似文献   

Three-point correlations in weak lensing surveys: model predictions and applications     

Masahiro Takada  Bhuvnesh Jain 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(3):857-886

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The kurtosis of the cosmic shear field     

Masahiro Takada  Bhuvnesh Jain 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,337(3):875-894

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The photoionization effect of the ultraviolet background on the colour–magnitude relation of elliptical galaxies     

Masahiro Nagashima  Naoteru Gouda 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,325(4):L13-L18

We have examined the effects of the ultraviolet background radiation (UVB) on the colour–magnitude relation (CMR) of elliptical galaxies in clusters of galaxies in the hierarchical clustering scenario by using a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. In our model the UVB photoionizes gas in dark haloes and suppresses the cooling of the diffuse hot gas on to galaxy discs. By using a semi-analytic model without the effect of the UVB, Kauffmann & Charlot found that the CMR can be reproduced by strong supernova heating because such supernova feedback suppresses the chemical enrichment in galaxies, especially for small galaxies. We find that the CMR also becomes bluer because of the UVB, in a different way from the effect of supernova feedback. While supernova feedback suppresses the chemical enrichment by a similar mechanism to galactic winds, the UVB suppresses the cooling of the hot gas. This induces suppression of the metallicity of the intracluster medium (ICM). In our model we find that the existence of the UVB can plausibly account for an observed ICM metallicity that is equal to nearly 0.3 times the solar value, and that in this case we can reproduce the CMR and the metallicity of the ICM simultaneously.  相似文献   

Morphological changes in branchial mitochondria-rich cells of the teleost Paralichthys olivaceus as a potential indicator of CO₂ impacts     

Masahiro Hayashi  Takashi Kikkawa  Atsushi Ishimatsu 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

We studied the morphological and biochemical changes of mitochondria-rich cells (MRCs) of a demersal teleost, Paralichthys olivaceus, during exposure to 0.98, 2.97 and 4.95 kPa pCO₂. The apical opening area of MRCs increased 2.2 and 4.1 times by 24 h exposure to 2.97 and 4.95 kPa pCO₂, respectively, while the cross-sectional area or density of MRCs did not change. Gill Na⁺/K⁺-ATPase activity more than doubled at 72 h and then returned to the pre-exposure level at 168 h in 0.98 kPa pCO₂, while it increased 1.7 times at 24 h at 4.95 kPa. These results indicate that the apical opening area of MRCs and the gill Na⁺/K⁺-ATPase activity may be used as an indicator of acute (up to 72 h), but not chronic, impacts of high (>1 kPa) seawater CO₂ conditions in P. olivacues. Limitations of those parameters as indices of CO₂ impacts are discussed.  相似文献